Record petrol prices likely in October as oil nears $100 a barrel

South African motorists face the prospect of record petrol prices in October after oil prices climbed close to $100 a barrel, early industry data shows.

Early data points to steep petrol increases

The latest daily snapshot from the Central Energy Fund indicates petrol price increases of around R2.00 per litre for 95 Unleaded and R1.88 per litre for 93 Unleaded in October. If realised, those moves would push 95 ULP to R28.05 at the coast and R28.92 in Gauteng, surpassing the previous highs recorded in June.

Diesel also set for significant rises

Diesel is forecast to rise as well, with early-month data pointing to increases between R1.50 for 500ppm and R1.80 for 50ppm. The snapshot would raise 50ppm diesel to R30.29 at the coast and R31.85 inland, levels close to this year’s earlier peaks.

Why prices are climbing

The report links the upward pressure on oil to the continued war in the Middle East, which has pushed oil prices toward the $100 per barrel mark for the first time since July. Analysts cited in the snapshot said uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz a key oil transit route is skewing risk toward higher oil prices.

Warnings and recent context

The Central Energy Fund’s projections come with a caution: they are based on early-month data and markets could move before month-end. The predicted October increases follow sharp hikes in September when petrol rose by R1.34 per litre and diesel increased by between R2.94 and R3.15.

The article notes that higher fuel prices can raise inflation and squeeze household spending, as fuel costs feed through transport, food and other supply chains. The Reserve Bank has warned that higher fuel prices can lift inflation while weakening consumption and growth.

What to watch

• Movements in oil prices for the remainder of the month.
• Developments in the Middle East that affect the Strait of Hormuz.
• Any updated price snapshots from the Central Energy Fund.