Petrol price relief may still arrive in May as South Africans brace for fuel pain

Government says options are still being discussed

South Africans watching every rand at the pump may not be out of hope just yet.

Government officials say relief measures for fuel users are still being considered ahead of the May fuel price adjustment, offering a small ray of light during one of the toughest fuel cost periods in recent memory.

That matters because fresh projections suggest motorists and businesses could be hit again next month, especially diesel users who are already under pressure from rising transport and operating costs.

Why fuel prices are causing fresh anxiety

Mid-month figures from the Central Energy Fund indicate sizeable under-recoveries remain in the system.

Current estimates suggest:

• Petrol could rise by roughly R2.62 to R2.99 per litre
• Diesel could jump by around R9.05 to R9.07 per litre

Those numbers are lower than the shocking early-April projections, but they are still heavy enough to worry households and companies alike.

For truckers, farmers, delivery businesses and commuters, a sharp diesel increase would not stay at the filling station. It would likely feed into food prices, transport fares and everyday goods within weeks.

Diesel users face the biggest shock

If the projected diesel increase lands near current levels, wholesale diesel prices would move above R35 per litre, setting another record.

That would come after April already pushed inland wholesale diesel prices to new highs.

In South Africa’s economy, diesel is often the silent price mover. It powers freight fleets, generators, mining operations and agricultural machinery. When diesel spikes, inflation pressure usually follows.

Why South Africa cannot fully escape global fuel prices

According to the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, South Africa uses an import parity pricing model.

In simple terms, the country’s fuel price is linked to what refined fuel costs in major international markets. Those prices are then affected by:

• The rand-dollar exchange rate
• Shipping and freight costs
• Wholesale and retail margins
• Government levies such as the fuel levy and RAF levy

That means even if local demand is stable, global conflict, oil market tension or a weaker rand can still send prices climbing.

South Africa imports most of its fuel

Another key challenge is reliance on imported refined fuel.

Officials say South Africa imports between 60% and 70% of its finished petroleum products, largely from Gulf producers and India.

The country consumes roughly 65 to 67 million litres of fuel every day, which shows the scale of dependence.

So while supply shortages are not the immediate concern, affordability certainly is.

Could relief be announced soon?

Officials say discussions are continuing, with possible announcements expected once government processes are complete.

Treasury’s earlier move to partially suspend fuel levy pressure was welcomed, but many South Africans feel more support may be needed if May hikes remain severe.

Any new intervention could include temporary tax relief or other cushioning measures, though nothing has been confirmed.

Public reaction: frustration mixed with fatigue

Online reaction has followed a familiar pattern frustration, jokes and concern.

Many South Africans on social media say fuel hikes now feel like a monthly penalty that reaches into groceries, school transport and side hustles. Others question how small businesses are expected to survive repeated increases.

There is also growing fatigue. For many households, fuel is no longer just a motoring issue it is part of the wider cost-of-living squeeze.

What motorists should watch next

The final May adjustment will depend on market movements over the remaining weeks of April.

That means oil prices, currency shifts and any government intervention could still change the outcome.

For now, South Africans are left doing what they know too well: watching the numbers, stretching budgets and hoping relief arrives before the next trip to the pump.

{Source: Business Tech}

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