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Eskom’s Summer Outlook Points Towards Reduced Load Shedding

Published

7 months ago

September 28, 2023

The summer outlook for Eskom offers a glimmer of hope. It indicates that the nation can anticipate lower load-shedding stages as the year draws to a close and early 2024.

According to SANews, Calib Cassim, Acting Group Chief Executive of Eskom, shared this positive news during a recent State of the System media briefing. According to Cassim, Eskom foresees a decrease in the Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) during the summer season, commonly known as unplanned breakdowns.

However, Cassim cautioned that the power utility cannot completely rule out the possibility of load-shedding stages escalating.

“Our base case of 14,500MW [UCLF] shows a maximum of Stage 4 load shedding in terms of the outlook. Does it mean we are saying that there’ll be no stage 6? No, we are not saying that. If the unplanned outages increase to the outer scenarios of 17,500MW, then you would utilise Stage 6 to protect the integrity of the grid,” explained Cassim.

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The Acting CEO outlined the reasons behind Eskom’s confidence in achieving a UCLF of 14,500MW in the coming months.

“In winter, the average UCLF was around 16,500MW. This outlook for summer is… 14,500MW. Why are we saying that? The fundamental point is that you are bringing back over 2,000MW [at] Kusile… the three units plus unit 5. That is why we are confident with the 14,500MW,” Cassim stated.

He further elaborated that the outlook considered the return of these units from temporary stacks, coming online at the end of November and December. Cassim expressed Eskom’s commitment to reducing the UCLF below the projected 14,500MW.

While acknowledging the inconvenience caused by load shedding to the economy, livelihoods, and GDP, Cassim stressed that these measures are necessary to manage the system and prevent a blackout. Eskom remains focused on improving the situation and ensuring a more stable power supply in the coming months.

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