‘All Is Not Well’: Agribusiness Confidence Plunges to 49 as FMD, ASF, and Global Pressures Bite

South Africa’s agribusiness sector is feeling the pressure.

The Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) fell by 18 points in the first quarter of 2026 to 49its lowest level since the third quarter of 2024.

The Context

The 50-point mark is neutral. Below it signals pessimism.

The current level of 49 suggests that South African agribusinesses are becoming “somewhat pessimistic” about business conditions, according to Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agbiz.

The survey was conducted in the first week of March 2026 and covered agribusinesses across various agricultural subsectors.

The Pressures

Several factors are weighing on sentiment:

• Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD): Spreading and imposing immense financial pressure on the cattle industry

• African swine fever (ASF): Affecting the pig industry

• Lower global prices: Particularly in the sugar and wheat industries

• Middle East conflict: Rising concerns about the impact on energy and fertiliser prices

The Subindices

All major subindices recorded declines:

• Turnover: Fell 21 points to 50driven by views from winter crop-growing regions with poor yields and global wheat price pressure

• Net operating income: Declined 22 points to 43the lowest since the end of 2024

• Market share: Deteriorated 17 points to 54port inefficiencies in Cape Town added to the downbeat mood

• Employment: Declined 14 points to 39mirroring the sector’s general sentiment

• General agricultural conditions: Fell 31 points to 39the lowest since the end of 2024

The Bright Spots

Despite the gloom, some respondents remained optimistic about capital investment.

“This lasting sense of optimism is consistent with the country’s general macroeconomic sentiment following S&P’s credit rating upgrades, South Africa’s removal from the FATF grey list, and numerous positive developments stemming from the implementation of Operation Vulindlela.”

The Outlook

Sihlobo warned that the challenges are not going away.

“The livestock and pig industries are under immense financial pressure because of the diseases, and these results mirror the challenge at hand.”

“What remains key is a speedy vaccination process that will get us off the current worrying path. The Middle East conflict also presents new challenges, complicating our exports to the region and putting pressure on fuel and fertiliser prices.”

“These factors may weigh on the sector as we approach the 2026-27 winter crop season and later in the 2026-27 summer crop season.”

The Bottom Line

FMD. ASF. Middle East war. Lower global prices. Port inefficiencies.

The index doesn’t lie: agribusiness confidence has tanked. And until the diseases are controlled and global pressures ease, the pessimism is likely to linger.

{Source: IOL}

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