ConCourt ruling on Phala Phala could damage ANC, analysts warn

What the court decided

The apex court found the National Assembly’s December 2022 vote that declined to refer the Section 89 Independent Panel’s report to an impeachment committee was inconsistent with the Constitution, invalid and set aside. The panel led by retired Chief Justice Sandile Ngcobo had found a prima facie case of wrongdoing by the president concerning undeclared US dollars found and stolen from his Phala Phala farm in Bela-Bela, Limpopo.

Parliamentary and party responses

Following the judgment, EFF national chairperson and chief whip Nontando Nolutshungu wrote to National Assembly Speaker Thoko Didiza asking for clear timelines to establish an impeachment committee. The African Transformation Movement said it would also write to the Speaker about implementing the ruling.

The DA said it would not shield wrongdoing. DA leader Geordin Hill-Lewis said:

“The impeachment committee must now do its work properly, rationally, fairly and constitutionally. The President must have the opportunity to account fully.”

The ANC said it would support Speaker Didiza and the National Assembly in ensuring compliance with the judgment and applicable parliamentary rules.

Analysts: an impeachment inquiry would be politically consuming

Siseko Maposa, director of Surgetower Associates Management Consultancy, said a sitting president facing an impeachment inquiry would become the centrepiece of the political landscape, arguing it would consume governing bandwidth, weaken the president’s leverage over Cabinet and coalition partners, and give opposition parties a sustained platform.

Maposa suggested Mr Ramaphosa is unlikely to step down voluntarily because that could spark a destabilising succession battle within the ANC, and said procedural delay was a likely strategy. He noted the ConCourt’s order for Parliament to amend Rule 129(1) on impeachment proceedings could afford the president more time for such delays.

Potential electoral consequences

Speaking to the SABC, analyst Sipho Seepe warned of political fallout if the impeachment committee’s proceedings take a long time:

“Politically, once you start going through that process, that will be rigorous, cross-examining, there will be a lot of embarrassment.”

Seepe added that the timing was bad for the ANC, which he said was seeing declining support and facing encroachment from other parties.

Resignation or prolonged process?

Nelson Mandela University lecturer Ntsikelelo Breakfast said President Ramaphosa may be considering resignation to avoid a prolonged parliamentary process that could further damage the ANC. He observed that there is now a committee specifically focused on the presidency to hold that office accountable and said the process would become a political battle.

“You will remember that previously there was no committee specifically focused on the presidency. Now there is, and it exists to hold that office accountable,” Breakfast said.

Breakfast warned the process could be “ugly” and said opposition parties would seek to extract political mileage, potentially leaving the ANC to calculate the electoral cost ahead of local government elections.

Parties have signalled they will approach Speaker Thoko Didiza to insist on timelines or implementation steps. Analysts expect the debate over procedure, timing and possible amendments to parliamentary rules to shape how and when any impeachment hearings proceed.