Study warns South Africa is trapped in discord, low growth and security risks

According to The Citizen, research by the Indlulamithi SA Scenarios project portrays South Africa as caught in a noisy, conflicted national climate where persistent low economic growth, weakening state institutions and mounting security threats reinforce public mistrust and social fracture.

Three driving forces to 2035

The Citizen reports that Indlulamithi, which analyses socioeconomic scenarios, identified three key driving forces that will shape the country’s trajectory to 2035. The first is a persistent low economic growth trap that has left South Africa stagnant and where new technologies and innovations have remained largely untapped, the research found.

The second force is a pervasive weakness of state institutions combined with dwindling democratic accountability, widespread corruption and escalating political tensions, The Citizen says.

The third is an internal security crisis fuelled by resentment, distrust and resistance to reconciliation, which the project links to growing social discord.

Institutional decline and social unrest

Indlulamithi’s work, as reported by The Citizen, describes a decline in the quality of state institutions and public service delivery that coincides with a surge in societal violence and an increased likelihood of persistent social unrest. The study highlights poor municipal audit outcomes as an indicator of failing state capacity.

High uncertainty and growing threats

According to The Citizen’s account of the research, South Africa faces a formidable blend of high uncertainty and significant impact from both local and global threats. The study flagged concerns about the government’s ability to handle these dangers, including the rise of organised crime, and warned that these risks contribute to a fracturing social fabric and a sense of alienation among youth.

Voices from the report

“South Africa remains mired in a low economic growth trap, a cycle from which the country has struggled to extricate itself.”

The Citizen attributes that finding to the Indlulamithi study and quotes Indlulamithi SA Scenarios project leader Xolelwa Kashe-Katiya emphasising growing insecurity:

“There’s an indication that our nation is not entirely secure. These are the issues we must explore.”

Scope of the research

The Citizen notes that Indlulamithi’s comprehensive research examines South Africa’s path by analysing historical and contemporary influences and has identified 26 key variables that indicate potential future paths for the country.

What the research signals

Reported by The Citizen, the Indlulamithi findings paint a picture of a nation where economic stagnation, weakening governance and security pressures interact to deepen distrust and conflict. The study frames these combined forces as critical factors that will influence South Africa’s trajectory through 2035.