Experts warn exodus of foreign nationals could dent South Africa’s economy and reputation

Experts say the flight of foreign nationals following the March and March protests risks hitting economic growth, disrupting industries and damaging South Africa’s international reputation.

Who left and why this matters

Analysts are concerned that the departure of both documented and undocumented foreign nationals after the March and March movement will have economic consequences beyond the immediate disruption of protest days. Economist Dawie Roodt said shop closures on the nationwide protests on 30 June had an immediate impact, and that the broader effect will be felt over the coming months or years.

Loss of economic contribution and reputational damage

Roodt told reporters that those who left the country “likely contributed more to the economy than they took from it, so it is effectively a loss for us.” He warned the country will “pay a price for this for a long time, especially in an economy struggling to grow.”

Political analyst Piet Croucamp said the events were broadcast worldwide and “portrays an image of South Africa as an intolerant and violent society, which we are.” He added that if enough foreigners left, thousands of South Africans could lose jobs because many foreign nationals employ local staff.

Jobs, vacancies and sectoral effects

Wayne Duvenage, CEO of Organisation Undoing Tax Abuse, said the return of thousands of immigrants to neighbouring countries will have left a void and create vacancies in various industries, which he said could lead to employment opportunities for South Africans in the months ahead.

North-West University politics lecturer Prof Benjamin Rapanyane said that in some farming communities illegal foreign workers mostly from Zimbabwe have been replaced by South Africans. He said he had seen “a huge change in a village next to mine, where citizens have replaced more than 120 illegal foreigners on the farms.”

At the same time, TLU chair Bennie van Zyl cautioned that many documented foreign nationals have become integral to the economy and agricultural sector, performing specialised tasks after years of employment. He noted there are cases of foreign nationals who have lived in South Africa for decades, married South Africans and raised families, and that their sons work alongside their fathers on the farms.

Industry responses: immediate impact limited, longer-term concerns

Industry bodies reported limited immediate disruption from the marches. Martlé Keyter, CEO operations at the Motor Industry Staff Association, said there was no reported industry-wide impact beyond skeleton staffing and poor sales for the day.

David Frost, CEO of the Southern Africa Tourism Services Association, said isolated pockets of protest were managed through route monitoring and itinerary adjustments, allowing travel programmes to continue. Brett Tungay, national chair of the Federated Hospitality Association of Southern Africa, said most establishments reported minimal disruption during the protest period but warned the bigger worry was the longer-term reputational damage to South Africa as a tourism destination.

Corporate clarifications

Spar Group South Africa spokesperson Mpudi Maubane denied social media claims that the retailer had launched a recruitment drive for 15 000 jobs to replace foreign staff. Maubane said those posts were false and that Spar did not advertise 15 000 jobs or run such a recruitment initiative.

Image and human impact

What comes next

Experts emphasised two overlapping risks: the immediate economic gap left in certain sectors and the longer-term harm to South Africa’s image abroad, which could affect tourism and investment. The reactions from labour groups, farmers and industry associations suggest some vacancies may be filled by South Africans, while other sectors could struggle to replace specialised foreign workers.

With the protests continuing to trigger follow-up events, analysts said the full scale of the economic fallout will become clearer only over time.