Record El Niño threat revives fears of a global food crisis

Scientists warn a potentially record-setting El Niño could worsen drought, floods and heatwaves and heighten global food insecurity. The phenomenon has been assigned a probability of up to 90% by scientists, and some projections suggest temperature increases could reach up to 5ºC above average in affected regions.

How strong El Niño could strain food systems

El Niño is a large-scale climate driver that alters weather patterns worldwide. The event under discussion is being compared with the devastating 1877 El Niño, which modern computer modelling suggests may have pushed temperatures as high as 3.5ºC above average and triggered droughts across Africa, South America, India and China, contributing to widespread famines.

Experts warn that even a few degrees of additional heat in an interconnected global weather system can have outsized consequences for agriculture and food supplies.

Vulnerable regions and existing stresses

The report notes that persistent conflicts and supply disruptions have already restricted global grain and energy flows. Because India produces nearly a third of the world’s rice, domestic shortages there could trigger export restrictions and diplomatic tensions with importing nations.

More than 1.4 million Somalis were displaced by drought and conflict in 2022, an example cited of how climate stress, food shortages and instability can interact.

El Niño as a “threat multiplier”

The Small Wars Journal described El Niño as a large-scale “threat multiplier” that can exacerbate geopolitical instability, resource competition and state fragility.

In fragile regions such as Africa’s Sahel, severe water and food scarcity can weaken central authorities and give space for non-state actors to gain influence by controlling access to essentials like water and food.

Warnings from broadcasters and researchers

A Public Broadcasting Service programme highlighted that modern agriculture, trade and emergency relief have reduced famine risk compared with the 19th century, asking:

“Could something like that happen again? Due to modern agriculture, trade and emergency relief, we don’t see famines on the scale we used to.”

The programme added:

“we’ve seen a sudden reversal in recent years caused by conflict, climate and economic shocks”.

It also warned that shortened recovery time between disasters reduces communities’ capacity to adapt.

PBS noted the effectiveness of early warning systems can be affected by changes to funding and agency capacity, concluding:

“What matters is how strong the impacts are around the world.”

What to watch

Key risks flagged include severe droughts and floods hitting agricultural zones that are already coping with supply chain and input constraints, and the potential for export restrictions by major producers to ripple through importing countries.

Observers say the coming months will show how the El Niño event plays out and how governments, aid organisations and markets respond.