SADC warns severe El Niño could deepen regional humanitarian crisis

SADC Executive Secretary Elias Magosi has warned that a potentially severe El Niño event in the 2026/27 season could increase humanitarian needs and threaten development gains across the Southern African Development Community.

Warning delivered at SADC Council of Ministers meeting

Speaking at the opening of the SADC Council of Ministers meeting in Durban on Wednesday, Magosi said seasonal forecasts pointed to a high likelihood of an El Niño that could surpass the intensity and impact of the 2023/24 event.

How the region could be affected

Magosi said the expected El Niño could worsen food and nutrition insecurity and increase fertiliser and energy costs, adding pressure on government finances and raising humanitarian needs. He warned these shocks could undermine development gains and stall regional goals such as integration, industrialisation and inclusive economic growth.

“Earlier this year, devastating floods claimed lives, damaged critical infrastructure, displaced communities and disrupted trade across parts of our region.”

Call for a shift from response to resilience

Magosi urged SADC members to move beyond reactive disaster responses and invest in resilience. He called for strengthened early warning systems, anticipatory planning and action, climate-resilient infrastructure, disaster risk financing and resilient recovery efforts.

He said stronger early warning systems and anticipatory planning would allow governments and regional structures to prepare for potential emergencies before they escalate.

Operational capacity and financing

Magosi identified the SADC Humanitarian Emergency Operations Centre in Nacala, Mozambique as an important part of the region’s response capacity and said getting the centre operational was critical. He emphasised that adequate financial and human resources must be provided so the centre can co-ordinate contingency planning, emergency response and recovery efforts effectively and swiftly.

What SADC is urging

• Investment in early warning and anticipatory planning systems
• Development of climate-resilient infrastructure
• Establishment of disaster risk financing and resilient recovery mechanisms
• Operationalising the SADC Humanitarian Emergency Operations Centre in Nacala with sufficient resources

Magosi’s remarks framed the anticipated El Niño not only as a weather event but as a multifaceted threat to food security, public finances and the region’s development trajectory.