Climate Impact Lab projects about 1,200 extra heat deaths in South Africa as El Niño intensifies

South Africa could record about 1,200 additional deaths linked to extreme heat between September 2026 and February 2027, according to a Climate Impact Lab projection tied to this year’s intensifying El Niño. The projection carries an estimated uncertainty of plus or minus 90 deaths.

What the Climate Impact Lab report says

The Climate Impact Lab projects that approximately 1,200 extra heat-related deaths could occur in South Africa during the September-to-February period as elevated temperatures and shifting weather patterns driven by El Niño take effect. The report is part of a broader assessment that estimates 451,000 additional worldwide deaths from extreme heat during the first nine months of the El Niño, from June 2026 to February 2027.

Regional impacts

The report warns that the impacts of this El Niño will be concentrated largely in the Global South and could also contribute to drought, wildfires and flooding as rainfall patterns shift. In Africa’s Sahel region the Climate Impact Lab projects 66,800 additional heat deaths over the next six months, with country projections including 31,400 in Nigeria, 17,500 in Sudan, 10,000 in Niger and 7,900 in Chad. South Africa’s projected figure places it among the countries expected to experience additional heat-related mortality during the September-to-February window.

Health and humanitarian concerns

The World Health Organization warned that the weather pattern could create favourable conditions for cholera and disease-carrying insects, notably mosquitoes, leading to rises in illnesses such as malaria, chikungunya and dengue fever. The WHO’s Unit Head for Risk Reduction, Humanitarian Operations and Climate Change, Teresa Zakaria, cautioned that the most severe impacts will occur where climate shocks intersect with weak health systems, limited access to healthcare, food insecurity, displacement and humanitarian crises.

Warnings from international agencies and climate monitors

The UN’s World Meteorological Organization, as reported by AFP, warned that this El Niño is forecast to be the strongest since comparable records began four decades ago, with effects continuing into 2027. The EU’s climate monitor said August was the hottest single month ever recorded globally, and ocean temperatures also reached unprecedented highs.

Calls for preparedness and adaptation measures

The Climate Impact Lab highlights that targeted emergency response and resilience measures can prevent many deaths. The report’s Adaptation Inventory, based on peer-reviewed research, identifies measures shown to save lives, including:

• early-warning systems
• cooling centres
• protections for outdoor workers

The Lab says these kinds of interventions, focused on areas facing the greatest risks, could avert tens of thousands of fatalities.

Agricultural advice amid rising temperatures

The Department of Agriculture urged crop farmers to implement climate-smart agriculture to conserve soil moisture. The department said:

“They should utilise implements that are in line with Conservation Agriculture principles that will further preserve the moisture and minimise soil erosion. Farmers should implement risk reduction measures such as not expanding land under production unnecessarily and prioritising suitable cultivars that will withstand dry and hot conditions.”

The Climate Impact Lab report frames this El Niño as potentially offering a glimpse of future climate conditions, saying it is bringing temperatures similar to those projected by climate change about two decades from now.