From snow to sun: El Niño raises South Africa’s heatwave risk for the rest of 2026

After a week of snow warnings and cold fronts, South Africa is now facing a shift toward warmer conditions and a heightened risk of heatwaves for the remainder of 2026. According to The South African, meteorological agencies say the immediate cold system has cleared and a broader climate pattern is now in place that could bring above-normal temperatures.

Weekend outlook: clearer skies and warmer days

According to The South African, Gauteng can expect clear skies, no rainfall and daytime highs climbing into the low 20s over the coming Saturday and Sunday. The South African reports that South African Weather Service (SAWS) forecasts show no warnings in place for the weekend as the recent cold system that produced the week’s snow warnings moves away.

El Niño confirmed what that means for the months ahead

According to The South African, the ENSO Reference Group has confirmed El Niño is firmly established. Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region are reported at around 1.7°C above average, which places the current event in the moderate category.

According to The South African, climate experts expect above-normal temperatures and an increased risk of heatwaves from August through December 2026. The South African also reports there is a chance the event could intensify further into a strong El Niño by late spring or early summer.

Broader impacts flagged by experts

According to The South African, experts are warning that El Niño years often bring additional impacts beyond higher temperatures. The publication says there is a risk of below-average rainfall across South Africa’s summer rainfall regions later in the year, which could affect planting schedules for commercial farmers and place pressure on water supplies if the pattern holds.

What to watch for

• Heatwaves: Increased likelihood from August to December 2026, per The South African.
• Rainfall reductions: Risk of below-average summer rainfall in summer rainfall regions, per The South African.

It is a striking transition: a week that included snow warnings is now giving way to forecasts of sustained warmth and elevated heat risk. According to The South African, South Africa’s climate outlook for the rest of 2026 will be shaped by the unfolding El Niño.