Petrol and diesel could hit record highs in October, CEF data shows

South African motorists face sharp fuel price rises in October, according to Central Energy Fund (CEF) figures that point to near‑record increases for both petrol and diesel.

How much the CEF says prices could rise

The CEF data shows steep under‑recoveries at the pump and wholesale level. Petrol 95 is under‑recovering by R2.78 per litre and petrol 93 by R2.62 per litre. For diesel the shortfalls are larger: R2.63 per litre for 0.05% sulphur and R3.00 per litre for 0.005% sulphur.

If current conditions hold, the CEF figures indicate the following possible October changes:

• Petrol 93: increase of R2.62 per litre
• Petrol 95: increase of R2.78 per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): increase of R2.63 per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): increase of R3.00 per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: increase of R3.13 per litre

Projected price levels

The CEF projections put pump prices for petrol near R29 per litre, with a specific scenario reaching R29.70 per litre, which would eclipse the June peak of R28.06. Wholesale diesel could move beyond R33 per litre, with an example figure of R33.05 per litre cited against a May record of R31.88.

What’s driving the increases

The source attributes the pressure on global fuel markets to intensified conflict involving Russia’s war in Ukraine, including drone strikes on energy infrastructure and restrictions on Russian diesel shipments. The article says analysts warn such disruptions could tighten supply and push costs higher worldwide.

Broader economic concerns

Economists quoted in the source caution that higher fuel costs will raise transport costs, squeeze disposable incomes and add to inflationary pressure. The source also states that South Africa’s GDP is forecast at 1.2% in the same analysis.

What this means for motorists and households

The CEF figures, as presented in the source, suggest motorists should expect a difficult month at the pumps in October, with rising fuel costs likely to affect both households and businesses.