Relief at the pumps? Early June data points to big fuel over‑recoveries

South African motorists could see relief at the pumps in July after early June data showed sizeable over‑recoveries for petrol and diesel, the Central Energy Fund (CEF) reported.

Key figures from early June

As of 8 June, the CEF’s fuel price projections showed the following over‑recoveries:

• Petrol 93: R2.60 per litre
• Petrol 95: R2.60 per litre
• Diesel 0.05%: R4.83 per litre
• Diesel 0.005%: R5.03 per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: R5.61 per litre

Why prices are tracking lower

The CEF attributed the recoveries to a combination of softer international oil prices and a relatively stable rand. The source noted improved sentiment in global oil markets since late May.

Fuel levy reinstatements and timing

National Treasury reinstated parts of the temporary fuel levy relief in June: R1.50 per litre was added back to petrol prices and R1.97 per litre to diesel prices. The source says the final phase of the levy reinstatement is scheduled for July, when a further R1.50 per litre will be added to petrol and R1.96 per litre to diesel.

The CEF noted that current over‑recoveries are sizable enough to absorb those levy increases and could still leave room for potential price cuts if current market conditions persist. It also cautioned that it is too early to be certain of July’s official adjustments because international oil prices and the rand/dollar exchange rate can change before month end.

CEF’s July projections

The latest projections received from the CEF showed the following potential changes for July:

• Petrol 93: decrease of 260 cents
• Petrol 95: decrease of 260 cents
• Diesel 0.05%: decrease of 483 cents
• Diesel 0.005%: decrease of 503 cents
• Illuminating paraffin: decrease of 561 cents

Current pricing and market indicators

The article included current June petrol and diesel prices for inland and coastal areas. Inland prices for June were listed as: Petrol 93 R27.95, Petrol 95 R28.06, Diesel 0.05% R27.92, Diesel 0.005% R29.26 and Illuminating Paraffin R22.47. Coastal June prices were listed as: Petrol 93 R27.16, Petrol 95 R27.19, Diesel 0.05% R27.05, Diesel 0.005% R28.00 and Illuminating Paraffin R21.42.

The source also stated market indicators at the time of publishing: Brent crude at $92.47 a barrel and the rand/dollar exchange rate at R16.46/$.

When new prices would take effect

The source said the final overall price changes for petrol and diesel would be confirmed later in the month, with the new prices taking effect at midnight on Tuesday, 30 June (year not specified in source).

Early June CEF data could point to possible relief at the pumps after four months of increases, though final confirmation will depend on oil and currency movements before month end.