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South Africa’s food price outlook for 2026 as disease outbreaks hit livestock
Food prices have become one of the biggest everyday worries for South Africans. From the cost of a Sunday braai to the price of a tray of eggs, many households are watching their grocery bills more closely than ever.
So when disease outbreaks began spreading through parts of the livestock sector, many people feared that food inflation could spike sharply in 2026.
But agricultural economists say the picture may not be as bleak as some expected.
Disease outbreaks raise concerns across the livestock sector
South Africa is currently dealing with outbreaks affecting key parts of the farming industry. The cattle sector continues to grapple with foot and mouth disease, while African swine fever remains a challenge for pig farmers.
These diseases create serious pressure for farmers. Movement restrictions on animals are often introduced to limit the spread, and these measures can disrupt farming operations and increase financial strain on producers.
Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, says it is natural that consumers are worried about the impact on food prices.
However, he believes the current situation does not automatically mean meat shortages or dramatic price increases.
Slaughter data suggests meat supply remains stable
One reason for cautious optimism lies in the latest industry data.
Figures from the South African Pork Producers’ Organisation show that pig slaughter numbers remained strong toward the end of 2025. In December alone, 331,453 pigs were slaughtered. That figure was 11 percent higher than in November and almost 3 percent higher than the same month in 2024.
Across the entire year, pig slaughter reached nearly 3.85 million animals. While slightly lower than the previous year, the decline was small.
Cattle slaughter numbers did dip in 2025 as foot and mouth disease intensified, falling by around 5 percent compared with 2024. Even so, the broader supply picture suggests that meat availability has not been severely constrained.
That matters for food prices.
If supply holds steady, dramatic spikes at the supermarket become far less likely.
Why meat prices rose last year
Some South Africans may remember seeing meat prices jump in 2025 and assume that disease outbreaks were the main cause. According to economists, the situation was more complicated.
Retail announcements about disease risks triggered waves of panic buying among consumers. Strong demand, rather than actual shortages, ended up pushing prices higher.
This shows how quickly consumer behaviour can influence prices, even when the underlying supply remains stable.
Poultry imports briefly added pressure
Another unexpected factor last year came from outside South Africa’s borders.
A temporary ban on poultry imports from Brazil followed an avian influenza outbreak in that country. This was significant because South Africa imports about 20 percent of its poultry consumption each year, and Brazil is one of its biggest suppliers.
The interruption sparked concern among retailers and shoppers. However, imports resumed once Brazil managed to contain the outbreak, easing pressure on the market.
Strong harvests could help stabilise food prices
While meat prices remain a key risk area, the broader food inflation outlook for 2026 looks more encouraging.
South Africa harvested an exceptionally strong crop during the 2024 to 2025 summer grain and oilseed season, producing around 20.08 million tonnes. That represented a jump of about 30 percent compared with the previous year.
The next season also appears promising. Forecasts for the 2025 to 2026 summer grains and oilseeds harvest currently sit at around 19.82 million tonnes. Although slightly lower than the previous season, it is still considered a healthy production level. Large harvests tend to bring good news for consumers because they help ease the price pressure on staple foods, vegetable oils, and animal feed.
Weather remains a watchpoint.
Recent flooding in parts of Limpopo and Mpumalanga raised fresh concerns for some farmers. Fortunately, the floods arrived after the potato harvesting season had already finished, meaning major vegetable losses were avoided. Attention is now shifting to citrus-producing areas, where growers are monitoring potential effects on the quality of the upcoming crop.
What inflation numbers say so far
Recent data shows that consumer food price inflation stood at 4.4 percent in January 2026. That figure was unchanged from December. Economists believe this level may represent the higher end of the current cycle, with a gradual easing possible as the year progresses. There is one important point consumers should keep in mind. Lower food inflation does not mean food prices will suddenly fall. It simply means prices may rise more slowly than before. For South Africans managing tight budgets, that distinction matters.
A tricky year, but not a crisis
Food prices will remain a sensitive issue in 2026, especially while disease outbreaks continue to affect parts of the livestock industry. Yet strong agricultural production, stable meat supply levels, and recovering import channels are all factors working in the country’s favour. For now, economists believe these forces could prevent the kind of sharp food price surge that many households feared. And for millions of South Africans filling their trolleys each week, that is at least a small piece of good news.
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Source: IOL
Featured Image: Food Business Middle East & Africa
