Don’t worry, petrol isn’t going up by R4 in November, but it’s not good news either

What the latest numbers show

According to IOL, the Central Energy Fund’s most recent figures show far smaller under-recoveries for all fuel types than earlier projections suggested. Those reduced under-recoveries form the basis for the current November estimates.

According to IOL, the projection is that petrol will increase by around R1.80 per litre in November while diesel will rise by about R1.00 per litre. These estimates follow a sharp round of increases earlier this month and reflect the latest accumulated and daily under-recovery measurements.

How these projections were reached

According to IOL, the calculations assume that the rand and international oil prices remain at their current levels through the end of October. The analysis notes recent daily petrol under-recoveries between R0.55 and R1.50, which would gradually reduce the current accumulated monthly average under-recovery of R2.73.

Those technical terms matter because under-recoveries the shortfall between the regulated wholesale price and the cost to import and supply fuel are passed through to retail prices when they accumulate. Smaller daily under-recoveries reduce the pace at which the accumulated balance grows, which in turn lowers the size of the monthly pump adjustment compared with earlier, more severe projections.

Where prices stand now

Earlier this month consumers already felt the effect of a large adjustment: 95-octane unleaded petrol rose by R3.33 at the start of the month. Current retail benchmarks listed in the reporting show petrol at around R29.38 at coastal outlets and about R30.25 in Gauteng. Diesel increases of between R2.84 and R3.24 pushed projected retail pump prices into the R33–R35 range at many outlets.

Why the new estimate matters

Even a smaller-than-feared increase will move both petrol and diesel to new record highs. For households and businesses already coping with elevated costs, the additional rise compounds pressure on budgets and operating margins.

Fuel costs ripple through the economy: higher transport costs feed into the price of goods and services, and they reduce disposable income for many households. For lower-income and transport-dependent consumers the impact is particularly acute.

Political and policy responses

The scale of recent hikes has prompted calls for government intervention. Organisations including the ANC, ATM and Fedusa have urged Treasury to consider reintroducing the temporary fuel tax relief that was applied earlier in the year, arguing that fiscal support could ease the immediate burden on consumers.

At the same time, public officials have signalled caution. IOL reported comments from President Cyril Ramaphosa that government is exploring ways to ease the fuel burden but must remain fiscally cautious. Transport Minister Barbara Creecy has also addressed one potential policy lever: she has ruled out raising the Road Accident Fund (RAF) fuel levy during her tenure, after reports that the levy might be increased from R2.25 to R3. Creecy told eNCA that motorists were already under enough financial pressure and that the focus should be on addressing longstanding mismanagement at the RAF.

“Motorists were already under enough financial pressure and argued that the focus should instead be on addressing longstanding mismanagement at the RAF.”

What to watch next

The immediate outlook depends on a few clear variables: exchange rates and international oil prices. If the rand weakens or oil prices rise before the end of October, under-recoveries could widen again and increase the November adjustment. Conversely, any improvement in those variables would reduce the size of the pass-through to retail prices.

Because the current projection rests on the assumption that market conditions remain steady through the rest of the month, consumers should expect some uncertainty to persist until final figures are published and the official monthly adjustment is declared.

Practical implications for motorists and businesses

For everyday drivers, an extra R1.80 per litre means noticeably higher weekly and monthly fuel bills, especially for people who commute long distances. For transport operators and businesses that rely on road freight, even a R1 per litre rise in diesel increases operating costs and can be passed onto customers in the form of higher prices.

Businesses and households coping with fuel-related inflation typically respond in predictable ways: reducing discretionary travel, consolidating trips, seeking more fuel-efficient behaviour, or, where possible, adjusting prices or service patterns to contain margins. These are general responses and can vary widely depending on economic circumstances and sectoral flexibility.

In short: the worst-case scenario of a R4-plus jump in November has eased, but motorists should not expect relief. According to IOL’s analysis of Central Energy Fund data, a meaningful increase of around R1.80 per litre for petrol and about R1.00 per litre for diesel is likely if market conditions hold and those increases would push prices to fresh highs, keeping pressure on already stretched consumers and businesses.