Africa’s Fuel Crisis Deepens As Imports Surge And Local Production Lags

Africa’s growing appetite for fuel is fast becoming one of its biggest economic pressure points, and new projections suggest the situation could worsen dramatically over the next two decades.

A fresh report from the Africa Finance Corporation paints a stark picture. By 2040, the continent could be staring down an 86 million tonne fuel shortfall, driven largely by its heavy dependence on imported refined products.

Africa’s Reliance On Imports Is Still Climbing

Right now, Africa imports more than 70 percent of its refined fuel. That dependence is not just limited to petrol and diesel. The continent also spends an estimated $230 billion each year bringing in essential goods like food, fertiliser, plastics and steel.

Instead of easing, this reliance is expected to grow. Fuel imports alone are projected to rise from 74 million tonnes in 2023 to 86 million tonnes by 2040.

To put that into perspective, that gap is roughly equal to the output of nearly three mega refineries like Nigeria’s Dangote facility, currently the largest on the continent.

For many African economies, including South Africa, this trend is not abstract. It shows up directly in fuel price volatility, inflation, and pressure on household budgets every time global supply chains are disrupted.

Global Conflicts Are Exposing Weak Links

The recent conflict in the Middle East has thrown Africa’s vulnerability into sharp focus. Key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz, responsible for about a fifth of global fuel transport, have become major risk zones.

For countries in East Africa especially, any disruption along these chokepoints can quickly translate into fuel shortages on the ground.

It is a reminder that Africa’s energy security is still tied to events happening thousands of kilometres away.

Leaders Call For A Shift In Strategy

Speaking at the AFC summit in Nairobi, Kenyan President William Ruto made it clear that the current model is unsustainable.

He argued that Africa cannot continue exporting raw materials only to import finished products at a higher cost. According to him, this cycle limits economic growth and keeps the continent dependent on external markets.

His comments echo a broader sentiment across the continent, where governments are increasingly under pressure to build local industries and reduce import reliance.

Infrastructure Gaps Hold Back Progress

Fixing the problem is not just about ambition. It is also about execution.

The AFC report highlights several structural challenges. In some cases, infrastructure simply has not kept pace with changing conditions. Zambian dams, for example, were not designed to handle current drought patterns. In Angola, around two gigawatts of hydropower capacity has gone unused because it is not connected to the regional grid.

These are not small inefficiencies. They represent lost opportunities in a continent that is already struggling to meet its energy needs.

Kenya has already signalled its intent to change course, announcing plans for major infrastructure investment. This includes new hydroelectric dams, expanded power generation, and upgrades to transport networks.

Untapped Resources Offer A Way Forward

One of the more surprising findings in the report is how underutilised Africa’s own resources remain.

The continent holds around 80 percent of the world’s phosphate reserves, a key ingredient in fertiliser production. Yet it produces only 20 percent of global supply.

At a time when fertiliser shortages are being worsened by geopolitical tensions, this gap represents a significant missed opportunity.

There is growing recognition that Africa could play a far bigger role in its own supply chains, not just in energy but across key industrial sectors.

A Turning Point For Africa’s Energy Future

The warning from the AFC is clear. Africa’s fuel shortfall is not just about energy. It is about economic independence, resilience, and long-term growth.

For countries like South Africa, where fuel prices already influence everything from transport costs to food inflation, the stakes are especially high.

The continent now faces a defining choice. Continue relying on global supply chains that can shift overnight, or invest heavily in local production, infrastructure, and self-sufficiency.

The next decade may well determine which path Africa takes.