Trump expresses optimism as US and Iran hold fire amid fragile negotiations

US President Donald Trump said on Monday there was a “good chance” of progress in talks with Iran as both sides held fire for a third consecutive day, but Tehran denied it was engaged in negotiations with Washington.

Pause in fighting and cautious optimism

The pause in hostilities has held since Friday after 13 nights of renewed US strikes that followed a breakdown in diplomacy over Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump, speaking aboard Air Force One, said:

“I have a lot of patience… We’ll see what happens,”

and added,

“I think there is a good chance that something could happen.”

During a speech in Michigan he said,

“right now, they’re talking to us about making a deal”

and warned that if the new efforts failed,

“we go back to doing what we were doing.”

He also addressed US stockpiles, saying:

“We have a lot of ammunition. We have a lot of the mid-level stuff too, more than we could ever use no matter what.”

Tehran denies direct negotiations

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said mediators

“may convey messages from the American side to us regarding current developments in the region. But at present, we are not engaged in any negotiations with the United States.”

He also criticised Washington, saying its conduct in recent years has

“resembled that of a mafia gang that adheres to no rules or laws”.

Regional flare-ups continue

Despite the lull between Washington and Tehran, attacks and confrontations persisted across the region. Saudi Arabia reported intercepting several drones on Monday that its defence ministry said were fired by Iran-linked groups in Iraq and were targeting oil facilities. No group claimed responsibility and Riyadh called on Baghdad to prevent attacks from being launched from its territory.

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi called for an investigation into Saudi Arabia’s allegations. Pakistan, which has been mediating a resolution to the conflict, condemned the drone attacks, saying they “pose a grave threat to peace and stability” in the Middle East. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels said they launched drone attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure in response to incursions by the kingdom’s drones; Riyadh is yet to comment on that claim.

The Israeli military said it had intercepted two drones near the Jordanian border and was investigating their launch point.

Shipping, markets and control of the Strait of Hormuz

Global stock markets rallied and oil prices tumbled after the pause in strikes. International benchmark Brent fell about six percent to around $86 a barrel, offering relief for Gulf shipping and the oil industry.

Control of the Strait of Hormuz remains a core issue. Iran insists on managing the conduit and its Revolutionary Guards have been stopping vessels trying to transit the route in recent days, including six that state television said had sailed outside Iran’s designated route. Tehran said it had held talks with Oman on “common principles and operational mechanisms” to ensure safe passage; Baqaei said the United States was not involved in those recent discussions.

Earlier this year, Muscat and Tehran said they would discuss imposing service fees on transit. Oman later said vessels could transit the Strait via its waters, a position that Tehran responded to by attacking ships.

Outlook

Negotiations between Washington and Tehran remain fragile amid deep mistrust and wider regional tensions. While leaders offered guarded optimism, attacks and interceptions across the Gulf underline how precarious the situation remains.