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More Petrol Price Pain for South Africans as Fuel Costs Continue to Climb
South African motorists are bracing for yet another fuel price increase in March 2025, as early indicators show a sharp under-recovery in petrol and diesel prices. If these trends persist, this will mark the third consecutive month of rising fuel costs, adding further pressure to consumers and businesses alike.
Expected Fuel Price Increases for March 2025
According to early-month estimates, motorists can expect the following increases per litre:
- Petrol 93: ⬆ 51 cents
- Petrol 95: ⬆ 39 cents
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): ⬆ 32 cents
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): ⬆ 41 cents
- Illuminating paraffin: ⬆ 53 cents
The primary driver of the fuel price under-recovery is the global oil market, which is still stabilizing after a volatile start to the year.
Why Are Fuel Prices Increasing?
Global Oil Prices Remain Volatile
International crude oil prices saw a surge in January 2025, reaching $85 per barrel before declining to the current $75 per barrel. However, this is still significantly higher than early-year levels, putting pressure on fuel costs.
Market analysts point to ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China, as well as new tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump, as key factors influencing global oil demand.
According to Bloomberg, Trump’s tariffs on China have sparked concerns over slower economic growth, which could reduce crude oil demand and lead to oversupply later in the year. However, for now, oil prices remain high enough to contribute to rising fuel costs worldwide.
Rand-Dollar Exchange Rate Impact
The rand remains weak against the US dollar, currently trading at R18.42/$, down from over R19.00 in mid-January.
A weaker rand makes it more expensive for South Africa to import oil, further driving up petrol and diesel prices. Currency fluctuations have been affected by:
- Global geopolitical instability
- Trump’s trade policies, including threats to remove South Africa from AGOA
- Local economic concerns, such as load shedding and uncertainty around government policies
Economic Impact: A Tough Road Ahead for South Africans
Fuel Retailers and Motorists Feel the Pinch
Henry van der Merwe, chairman of the South African Petroleum Retailers Association (SAPRA), warns that rising fuel costs create a lose-lose situation for both businesses and consumers.
“When fuel prices go up, motorists drive less and plan trips more carefully, reducing sales volumes for service stations,” he explains. “Even stations that buy on consignment don’t benefit, as profit margins shrink in a tough economic environment.”
Ripple Effect on Inflation and Transport Costs
Higher fuel prices mean increased transportation costs, which could:
- Push up food and goods prices
- Raise business operating expenses
- Put upward pressure on inflation
Although South Africa’s inflation hit unexpected lows in late 2024 and early 2025, economists warn that the trend could reverse due to rising global fuel prices and trade uncertainties.
While the South African Reserve Bank aims to keep inflation around 4.5%, risks remain, particularly if global markets become more volatile due to Trump’s policies.
What Can Motorists Do?
Van der Merwe advises motorists to take proactive steps to minimize fuel consumption, including:
Planning trips efficiently to reduce unnecessary driving
Using fuel-efficient driving techniques such as maintaining steady speeds and avoiding harsh acceleration
Keeping vehicles well-maintained to ensure optimal fuel efficiency
Final Thoughts: More Uncertainty Ahead
If the current trends continue, March 2025 will bring another fuel price increase, adding further strain to South Africa’s already pressured economy.
As global oil markets fluctuate and the rand remains under pressure, South Africans should brace for a volatile road ahead. Will fuel prices stabilize in the coming months, or is this just the beginning of a long period of increases?
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