Diesel Set to Jump as Petrol Relief Fades

South African motorists face limited petrol relief in August while diesel prices look set to rise sharply, according to IOL (Independent Online).

What the projections say

According to IOL (Independent Online), current Central Energy Fund data indicate only small reductions in petrol: 21 cents per litre for 95 Unleaded and 26 cents for 93 Unleaded. However, IOL says mounting under-recoveries recorded over the past week are expected to eat into those gains before month-end.

Diesel outlook

IOL (Independent Online) reports a much steeper outlook for diesel users, with current calculations pointing to increases of between R1.63 per litre (50ppm) and R1.80 per litre (500ppm). IOL adds that should oil prices continue to retreat, as they have done over the past day, the increases could be in the R1.30 to R1.50 range.

Factors that could change the picture

IOL (Independent Online) notes the Slate Levy as a potential wildcard: if the Slate Levy sees a significant reduction from the current R1.14 per litre, then a more substantial petrol price reduction could be on the cards.

Broader context

Writing on the wider causes, IOL (Independent Online) says the Middle East war has wreaked havoc on South African fuel prices this year, producing sharp increases in April and May followed by some relief in July. IOL concludes that, despite recent volatility, the most likely outcome is that petrol prices will remain close to current levels in August, while diesel will see increases of more than R1.

What motorists should expect

Based on IOL’s reporting, drivers should not count on significant petrol savings this month and should prepare for notable diesel price rises unless oil market moves or policy changes alter the current calculations.